Best Picture
Amour
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Predicted: 7 for 9
Reactions: So, it appears even in a year such as this, where there are a clear five films that have stood above the rest throughout the precursors, there are still going to be 9 films nominated. I predicted 8 would be the number. 5% of first place votes seems very significant to me, but maybe it is this spread out every year. I predicted The Master and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel for the top 9, which were replaced by Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild. What this says to me is that Micheal Haneke might be the most popular foreign director in the world (first BP nom for a foreign film since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), and nearly every year will have that no-budget indie that will get taken all the way from Sundance to the “Big Dance”. This is not too bad of a lineup. It is much better than the train wreck of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and War Horse last year. It is a solid group for a solid, somewhat below average year overall.
Preliminary prediction: Silver Linings Playbook
Best Director
Michael Haneke – Amour
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Wait a minute…what? Where’s Ben Affleck!? Really, Academy? Seriously? Come on. That movie screamed Oscar and was probably the most complex direction of the year. He is one of the best directors working right now, makes three home runs in a row, the third of which totally catered to your style, and you cannot nominate him, why? Because he’s Ben Affleck. The day after we see the Baseball Writers of America becoming the story in the sports world by not giving anyone access to the Hall of Fame and making what amounts to a political decision not to put a certain era of players into a baseball museum, the Oscar voters do something similar by deciding to snub the best director of the year just because he used to be a lousy actor and used to fill the tabloids with his love life and whatnot. Give me a break. What do you want the guy to do? Anyway… I digress. I predicted 3 correctly, missing Haneke and Zeitlin by predicting Affleck and Bigelow. I cannot believe that two of the stone cold locks of the season did not make it into the most important category, but hey it was a surprise right? Sure, but not in the category we like to see them in.
Preliminary Prediction: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Denzel Washington – Flight
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I knew that last spot would come down to John Hawkes and Hugh Jackman. Jackman was average and one of the worst parts of Les Mis, but he was the lead in a movie the Academy loved. So I guess that is good enough for them. But not for Ben Affleck. I am surprised they didn’t give him the producing shaft and give 2 noms to Clooney instead. Here we have what appears like a one horse race, but I have a sneaky feeling that DDL might get a challenge from Phoenix. They clearly didn’t love The Master, but three acting noms is huge. They might want to give it one of them and not give Day-Lewis a third Oscar when he doesn’t really work all that often. Wishful thinking, maybe/probably…
Preliminary Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had former winners Rachel Weisz and Marion Cotillard in for Wallis and Riva. I love the fact that the oldest ever and youngest ever Best Actress nominees are in the same category. Wallis was terrific in her movie, and definitely deserved to be singled out, but judging by my predictions, I clearly did not think Beastswould be this popular. This category only has two contenders, and judging by the massive love for SLP, I gotta think it is going the way of the budding superstar.
Preliminary Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had it written where it was possible that Waltz could get in over DiCaprio. I almost expected it, but I went the other way. The Academy really went out of their way to not be predictable this year. They snubbed some of the biggest contenders in several categories. I have no problem with the group of former winners, though. It is by far the most wide open acting category in years. Which winner will they want to give a second Oscar to first? It won’t be Arkin, who received the throw-away nomination of the year with no chance of winning. Waltz was really a lead, so maybe they go that way? Hoffman gave one of the performances of the year and probably has the best chance of winning in his movie. Tommy Lee Jones has the critical favorite role in the leading nomination-getter. There is two-time winner Robert De Niro in the most popular film with actors. I feel that with all of the Academy members who look up to De Niro and want a comeback so badly that a win here would finally be their way of re-validating him. The Golden Globe snub is still confusing to me, but it happens sometimes.
Preliminary Prediction: Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – The Master
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Well, I had Jacki Weaver on my longlist back in like July. After the precursors started and she didn’t show up anywhere, I knew it was over for her. It’s a random nomination, but a good one. She is a great character actress. I had Nicole Kidman getting that fifth spot. This award is going to Anne Hathaway, but that doesn’t matter. Can anyone name the last time we had a movie with nominees in all four acting categories?...anyone… That’s right, Reds. 1981. That is how unprecedented the love the Academy has for Weinstein…err…Silver Linings Playbook. That is an incredible achievement. This is a solid group of nominees, actually. And it is official…Amy Adams: the next Thelma Ritter. She is nominated for every remotely serious movie she does, yet never really comes close to winning. That has to change.
Preliminary Prediction: Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Original Screenplay
Amour – Michael Haneke
Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino
Flight – John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I always look for that random screenplay nomination (The Messenger, Margin Call, In Bruges) to tell me what indie is going to be one of the best movies of the year. The only oddball nom we got was freaking Flight. Horrible. I went against my better judgment and put The Master in the fifth spot. This is an interesting category. Amour seems to be this year’s Talk to Her. Zero Dark Thirty might not be as surefire a winner here like we thought, and Django might have a bit more backing than we thought. It is an interesting race here, but for now, I am going with the upset.
Preliminary Prediction: Amour – Michael Haneke
Adapted Screenplay
Argo – Chris Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi – David Magee
Lincoln – Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: It appears all is forgiven with David O. Russell. I guess they can’t do the same for Affleck. Ok, I will stop now. But seriously they probably would have snubbed his movie here if he had received a writing credit. Ok, really done now. Continuing the trend, I had Beasts out in favor of The Perks of Being a Wallflower, which I thought would have a big fan base, but I guess not. This one is over before it even starts.
Preliminary Prediction: Lincoln – Tony Kushner
Cinematography
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Zero Dark Thirty and The Master in and Anna Karenina and Django out. That is a great oddball choice by the Academy, though, putting Robert Richardson’s terrific work in this category. Too bad it was at the expense of The Master, one of the more impressive camera jobs in years. I can only hope that Roger Deakins takes this for his magnificent work on Skyfall, but it isn’t happening. There is a massive epic with CGI, you know... That has to win…
Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: BOOM! My first/only perfect category, even if I can’t remember that they changed the name of it. Everything here is about normal. Costume dramas, more CGI, yawn…
Preliminary Prediction: Lincoln
Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Cloud Atlas in for Snow White and the Huntsman. Two Snow White films in the same category? Nice. Neither of them are winning this.
Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables
Sound Mixing
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: I had Zero Dark Thirty, The Dark Knight Rises, and The Avengers in and Lincoln, Argo, and Skyfall out. I forgot that this is a sneaky important category. Most winners are mentioned here. It is just crazy that Argo gets the shaft in Director, but it is everywhere else it needs to be.
Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables
Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Les Miserables in for SLP. So, if history is any indication, we officially have three films with a chance: Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Life of Pi. For the record, Ordinary People (1980) was the last to win Best Picture without an Editing nomination (that is probably what cost Brokeback Mountain the top prize), and no film since Driving Miss Daisy (1989) has won without a Directing nomination. Interesting developments.
Preliminary Prediction: Zero Dark Thirty
Sound Editing
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: I had The Dark Knight Rises (shut out, by the way), The Avengers, and Looperin for Argo, Django, and Zero Dark Thirty. Nothing really to comment on here. Life of Pi really is this year’s Hugoand Argo somehow pops up in an action movie category. Alright…
Preliminary Prediction: Skyfall
Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had John Carter and The Dark Knight Risesin for Prometheus and Snow White. This appears to be a competitive category, but recently this award seems to be going to contenders.
Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi
Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Predicted: 1 for 3
Reactions: I had Looperand Men in Black 3 in for Hitchcock and The Hobbit. This is a very standard Oscar category. I guess I went with a couple underdog ones, since they do like to throw a Norbit or Click in there every once in a while.
Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables
Song
“Before My Time” – Chasing Ice
“Suddenly” – Les Miserables
“Pi’s Lullaby” – Life of Pi
“Skyfall” – Skyfall
“Everybody Needs a Friend” – Ted
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: I had the Paul Williams Still Alive, Brave, and Hunger Games songs in for Chasing Ice (what?), Life of Pi, and Ted. Second time in three years that the host is nominated at his ceremony. If I am not mistaken, I believe that a Bond film has never won in this category, so Oscar will find a way to screw this up too.
Preliminary Prediction: “Everybody Needs a Friend” – Ted
Score
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had The Master and Zero Dark Thirty in for Skyfall and Anna Karenina. Is it just me, or is Anna Karenina one of the most curiously underperforming movies this year? No real box office, tons of early buzz, four technical nominations. I am still trying to figure out what happened to Keira Knightley. Let’s see…Argo’s score is certainly this year’s Michael Clayton/The Hurt Locker, the one that we will just have to take the voters’ word for it because no one remembers it. Wow, they really hated The Master. Skyfall here? Awesome. I kinda wish we would have seen one major nom for it, the second best of all the Bond films, but oh well.
Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi
Documentary
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had This is Not a Film and Ai Weiwei in for 5 Broken Cameras and The Gatekeepers. I am not too familiar with any of these because none of them have really been widely released or publicized this year. This category is always a bit strange, anyway. I will just take a stab at a semi-upset.
Preliminary Prediction: The Invisible War
Foreign Language Film
Amour
War Witch
No
A Royal Affair
Kon-Tiki
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had The Intouchables in for A Royal Affair. I really thought that was the winner in this category. I never know what to think here. Sometimes the clear favorite (Pan’s Labyrinth, for instance) loses despite several nominations. Sometimes that movie (like last year’s An Education) was winning regardless. Sometimes that favorite (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) is not even submitted by its country for eligibility in this category. I am not sure whether they just love Amour that much and will give it whatever it can, or whether they will want it to really compete for the top awards and not hold it back. I just cannot go against it, though.
Preliminary Prediction: Amour
Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had From Up on Poppy Hill and Rise of the Guardians in for ParaNorman and The Pirates. This category is really wide open. I am not sure if they want Tim Burton to be a winner yet, but this would be a way to give him a back-handed award, rather than a Best Director. Eh…just for the hell of it, I am going with my heart.
Preliminary Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph
Overall predictions: 72/107; 67.29% (69.23% in 2012)
Without the last 5 categories: 57/82; 69.51% (73.17% in 2012)
On the Big 8 categories: 33/44; 75.00% (79.55% in 2012)
So, I was slightly down from last year, which was slightly down from the year before that. I attribute that to not seeing as many movies the last couple years. Plus, this year was just weird, especially for the top categories. No real off-the-wall Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah-esque shockers, but just some minor surprises. I can and will do better next year!
5 coolest first-time nominees:
(there is no way I can come up with 10 this year)
1. Seth MacFarlane
2. Adele
3. Bradley Cooper
4. Quvenzhane Wallis
5. Roman Coppola
10 worst snubs:
1. Ben Affleck for Best Director
2. The Masterfor Best Cinematography, Sound Mixing, and Best Original Score
3. Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Supporting Actor
4. Looper for Best Original Screenplay
5. The Hunger Gamesfor Best Production Design
6. Kathryn Bigelow for Best Director (I am assuming)
7. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter for Best Visual Effects
8. The Perks of Being a Wallflower for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress (Emma Watson)
9. Matthew McConnaugey for Best Actor (Killer Joe) and Best Supporting Actor (Magic Mike)
10. Richard Gere for Best Actor (getting used to that…)
So, after a discussion with Terry, we came up with the best possible comparison of this year to a past year: 1998. The huge Spielberg production was the odds-on favorite (Saving Private Ryan/Lincoln). There is a beloved foreign film nominated for Best Picture, Director, Acting, Screenplay, etc. (Life if Beautiful/Amour). There is the misunderstood and unconventional military movie (The Thin Red Line/Zero Dark Thirty). There is the popular costume drama (Elizabeth/Les Miserables)…bit of a stretch on that one, I know. There is probably the best movie of the year that got major snubs come nomination morning (The Truman Show/Argo). The movie that is going to take the whole thing, however, is the dark horse comedy distributed by the Weinsteins (Shakespeare in Love/Silver Linings Playbook). They will still throw Spielberg his directing bone, but the crowd-pleaser is the movie that will somehow come out on top for Best Picture. It will be interesting to see how the next few days shape the race, with the Critics Choice Awards tonight and the Golden Globes in three days. I love this time of year!Stay tuned for our Fifth Annual Oscar Challenge! What do you think of this year’s crop of nominees? Who are you predicting to win? Let me know in the comments.
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